War with Iran: An Analysis of the Middle East Conflict and Its Global Impact

Today, the war between Israel and Iran has entered the middle of second week, and it has led to involvement of armies of 15 Gulf countries as well as European countries as a result thereof. On account of their small geographic areas, the Gulf countries have been made to suffer serious economic losses due to this war. If we see the history of Iran, it looks like as if it has waged a sort of holy battle against Israel, the way Ottoman Empire used to do in the earlier times. Even in that era, the European countries used to ally with the Jews against the Ottoman Empire. In the same manner, they have sided with Israel currently, isolating Iran in the process. Whether the President of Iran seeks apology or not, by attacking the Gulf countries, he has largely made this struggle as a Shia-Sunni conflict. Due to massive attacks on it, Iran is gradually getting reduced to rubble with large scale depletion of its Navy and Air Force, and its capacity to shield itself from missiles and bombs has got considerably eroded. It is precisely for this reason that despite bombarding the whole of Iran with drones, it has not been able to bring down even a single aircraft.

The world should bear in mind that it is fighting against a government resting upon a fundamentalist, religious organisation which is cadre-based with a definite hierarchy. In this war, the first and second layers of their organization has got wiped out, and it is only when their third and fourth layers get erased, they will become devoid of leadership. This is what I believe in this whole case.

I am of the firm opinion that, had their first and second layer leadership been existent today, they would not have attacked upon the Gulf countries, but rather would have given it the name of Islamic Jihad.  The third layer of any cadre-based organisation is imbued with the feeling of religious fanaticism and the spirit of sacrifice, and it is not pragmatic in its approach. The United States has created conditions of a civil war in Iran because, it, in the course of bombardment, has not spared even the police squads and police pickets. When even this third layer would also get destroyed, Iran would not be left with any agency to control the law & order situation in the country.

It has come to notice for the first time after the WW II that Europe and NATO countries have not stood with America on an issue. When I was in London few years back, most people used to say to me that Britain was a laggard of the United States. However, the UK has granted permission to use its military bases 48 hours after the start of the operation, and attack on its bases located in Cyprus by Iran. Today, it has signaled to send its aircraft carrier to the region. German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, though met President Trump in Washington, just 4 days after the launch of the attack, he has not pledged any military support to Iran in the joint statement except denouncing Iran.

Currently, as a result of the policies of Trump, within just a period of one-and-half years, both Europe and NATO countries have made a distance from the US. It must be certainly being felt by the American people as well as President Trump that whether their country is at all heading towards the direction of “Make America Great Again” or, contrary to that, it is getting isolated. Clearly, new international equations are getting created which will give rise to more American competitors.

Prior to the Russia-Ukraine War, the European countries used to import 27% of their requirement of oil from Russia, but now they do so only 3%. Their alternative source for Russia is America or the Gulf countries. Hence, military attachments, including fighter aircrafts and warships, of UK, France, Italy, Netherlands and Spain are moving towards the Middle-East, that is, region where Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman, UAE, Cyprus, Lebanon, Kuwait, Iraq and Jordan are located. Although these European countries have claimed that they want to provide the air defence to the Gulf countries, but the fact of the matter is, indirectly, they too have become a part of the Gulf War for the reason that almost all European countries have a security treaty with the Arab countries, the latter being supplier of oil to them. The stance of the European countries will be of great help to US-Israel combined in form of providing defence from the Iranian missiles attack.

The attack launched by Iran on Azerbaijan has been perhaps because it also sells oil to Europe.

Hamas and Hizbollah used to be very strong organisations who fought for the Palestinian cause, but both of them owing to their misdeeds are on the verge of getting petered out. These organisations shall not be getting any support from the Lebanese Government which they had been getting all this time. The Lebanese Government has asked Hezbollah to lay down its arms. This will, in fact, be for the good of the people of Lebanon because, in future, no militant group shall be to thrive ever after. However, as a result of their wrongdoings, a beautiful city like Lebanon has also got destroyed, in the process on. 

The US-Iran War is going to have a deleterious effect on the economy of our country because we buy around US $70-75 billion worth crude oil from the Middle-East. As a result of the war and incidental losses to the Gulf countries, it is not possible that they would be at all able to provide a continuous supply of this much quantity to us. Apart from this, we also import LNG worth US $13.2 billion, including fertilizers, diamonds, industrial raw material, limestone, metals, etc. Only recently, the cost of LPG cylinders in India has gone up by Rs. 60, and it is quite probable that the price of the petrol would be also hiked soon. The other hand some state government declare barred on commercial used of gas.

Pakistan, with the help of China, has developed Gwadar Port, which is a naval and commercial base, and in order to counter it, the Indian Government had been developing the Chabahar Port in which we had made an investment of US $500 million, but during the course of this war, due to the attack by the US Forces, this port has got completely devastated.

Pakistan had closed its airspace to us due which our aircrafts used to reach Central Asia and CIS countries via Afghanistan and Iran. Now, this also has come to an end. As a result of the current situation, our airlines will be required to incur more costs on fuel, and the passengers will have to double out extra fare as well as put up with additional flying hours.

Prior to trade deal with the US, it was a precondition of America that India stops buying oil from Russia. We had accepted their stipulationunofficially as a consequence of which import of oil from Russia has reached at 0.2% level, from the earlier 20%. But, owing to the prevailing war, Russia has again offered us to sell oil, which we have accepted. Concurrently, the US too has allowed us to purchase oil from Russia for another one month.

The situation confronting us will assume more serious dimensions in the coming times. Presently, the US has launched attack on the oil refineries of Iran as well as its oil wells which comprise the backbone of the country’s economy. This way, Iran would not be able to export oil and its economy will be able to reach to its present level only after many decades.

Another news that is trickling in is that the Unites States is going to press in its Parachute Battalion which will undertake ground operations. In the same way, it wants to lay siege upon the Uranium deposits lying with the Iran so that the eventuality of making a nuclear bomb by the country in future is preempted. In these conditions, the Indian Government should strive to ensure that the oil reserves, which it usually keeps for 70 days, should be ramped up to meet our 4-months requirement.

Since last some years, the role of our media has been to spread panic among the people. Today, our television anchors do not read out the news but rather shout like drumbeats. Consequently, on the one hand, people lose faith in the media, the morale of our security forces comes down, on the other. A war comes with its grimness and attendant consequences, and it is not like an electric switch that can be used to put on or off a light, at will. To the best of my knowledge, the history of Iranian people has been of belligerency. In fact, the first empire of the world was the Persian Empire, often referred to as Ahmadiyya Empire. Iran waged a battle for about 8 years with Iraq in the 1980s before emerging out victorious.

The Muslim community is a blind follower. They act first and think later, and to kill somebody is a part of their sacred rituals. Hence, they lack humaneness compared to the followers of the other religions. Nevertheless, the war which Iran is waging currently with America is more for its survival rather than for defence. And, whatever news that is coming is either from the American media or from the Gulf countries. Army generals have a different priority for achieving their targets; they do not work upon their priorities by what is circulating in the media. So, propagating news that Trump or America has lost and Iran has won, is laughable. It also shows the lack of seriousness and maturity on the part of our media.

It is being widely spread in media that 3 US fighter aircrafts were shot down and 6 American soldiers were killed. It should be acknowledged that commanding such a large force along with a huge area (spanning 4 lakh sq. miles) comes with its own limitations. Hence, mistakes do occur, but the consequences of these mistakes is borne by the army and the public. Even we also have committed similar types of mistakes in the wars fought by us. As a case in point, we lost 20 jawans in the 2020 Galwan clashes. So, if the US and Iran are waging such a large-scale war, then losing six of their soldiers should not mean that “America has lost the war”. In my opinion, the media should act more responsibly.

It is true that on an international level, the Muslim community is faced with many serious political problems in major countries. But solution to these problems is only political, and not a war whether it be the case of India-Pakistan, Palestinian issue, Afghanistan conundrum, or for that matter, the infighting between the Arab factions. All of these groups have fought many times without any result, and the problem remains as it is. In order to promote their interests, extremist groups have sprung up in these countries who wage violencein the whole of the world. Remarkably, the local Muslim organizations of these regions have never castigated the activities of these terrorist groups, not even as a tokenism.

When the political leaders are questioned personally in the matter, they reply that there is nothing wrong in what is happening. So many terrorist attacks occur in our country, but the Muslim people, or their organisations, never take up to streets to decry their nefarious acts.

Terrorist organisations like Hezbollah (Lebanon), Hamas (Gaza), Houthis (Yemen), Kata’ib Hezbollah (Iraq), Palestinian Islamic Jihad (Gaza), Iraqi Shiite Militas (Iraq), Marakat Al-Nujaba (Iraq), Asaib Ahl Al-Haq (Iraq), Syrian Regime Militants(Syria), Al-Ashtar Brigades, Saraya Al Mukhtar, Bahraini, etc. have not only carried out extremist activities against America and Israel but also have attacked trade routes and ships faring in high seas after which they celebrate themselves. These terrorists even used to commit atrocities like gang rapes of non-Muslim girls and film the act, and no Muslim cleric has condemned these acts. For this reason, I wrote earlier that Muslims, in general, are devoid of any human touch.