RUSSIA-UKRAINE CRISES : MILITARY OBJECTIVES

When the Soviet Union got disintegrated in 1991, then the Russian Government had constituted the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) on the lines of the European Union. But, other than Belarus, almost all the East European countries, that is, those that were a part of the Warsaw Pact, or member states of the COMECON (Economic Association of Communist Countries) under the banner of United Europe and for their economic development, tried to gain membership of the European Union, including that of the NATO, for security purpose. This is because they knew that despite disintegration, Russian Army is one of the strongest armies of the world.

Today, Russia is restive about the fact of NATO countries making Ukraine a member as this would mean American and NATO military bases and weapons reaching Ukraine.

Militarily, it is important that the superpower should step away from our boundaries or that of any other country, that is, there should be a buffer state in between. On seeing the map, we find that naval base of Russia is in Sevastopol (Crimea), which is a part of Ukrain. Sevastopol is important for keeping control over the Black Sea, where the Soviet Union had made this base after spending trillions of dollars. Notably, route from the Black Sea opens to Turkey and Western Europe.

Earlier, Crimea was a part of Ukraine. In 2017, Russia had taken Crimea on a lease for 25 years after entering into an agreement with Ukraine, and the duration of this lease is to end in 2042. Whereas, the Russian army had captured it in 2014 by launching an attack.

Russia has constituted a special task force called Mediterranean Task Force, which is composed of all its three services and is headquartered in Kacha and Guareisk. This brigade is known as BSF 11th Coastal Defense Brigade.

The most important factor in case of war is the supply lines because the fighting soldiers require arms & ammunition, medicines, etc. using them. Therefore, the Russian army requires safe supply lines for Sevastopol that pass through Donetsk and Luhansk located on the Russian border part of Ukrain. This entire region is called as Donbas. In this area, Donetsk consists of 39% and Luhansk consists of 47% Russians. This proportion is not of the Russian-speaking people but rather of the Russians. Since teaching of Russian language was mandatory in the Soviet Union, everybody speaks this language along with the local languages.

The Russian government by forming insurgent groups in Donetsk and Luhensk has got seized a major part of the area and has helped these groups in constituting their independent government, though it has not recognized it by Russia. Here, there are about 1000 military advisors of the Russian army who guide this independent government/army in its functions. The news being received since last two days about the ongoing shelling is from this region.

The steel which is produced in this region is used in the field of space and production of tanks, etc. on which Russia is heavily dependent.

In February 2015, a pact was signed between Russia and Ukraine in Minsk to the effect that dispute in this region would be resolved amicably. This agreement is called as Minsk II. Whereas on similar lines, another agreement was signed in 2014, which is referred to as Minsk I.

The readers would recollect that when in 1983, the U.S. Navy wanted to make a naval base in Trincomalee, the then Prime Minister, Smt. Indira Gandhi, in association with the communist parties and the Soviet government launched a public movement in the whole of Indian sub-continent countries as a result of which the Sri Lankan government had to deny permission to the U.S. and the
American forces had to move to Diego Garcia for the purpose. If there had been a leader like Indira Gandhi, the Pakistan-China Government Agreement on Gwadar Port would not have got implemented. Even today, China has increased its influence over Nepal, Sri Lanka and Maldives. Today (20th February), a bill was presented in the Nepalese Parliament on the issue of American assistance, which has limited chances of getting passed. A public movement is going on in the whole of Nepal against the American government assistance. The movement has the full
backing of the Chinese Embassy in Kathmandu. Where does India stands on this whole issue is a matter of deliberation.

If we look back into the history, then we see that Britain had its naval base and an air base in Gan Island of Maldives up till 1975. Britain wanted to extend the lease, but Indira Gandhi and later, Morarji Desai did not allow this.

Now, the question arises is whether war would take place? I am of the opinion that Russia is not in a position to step back any more. But, none of the sides wants a full-fledged war; so, it is possible that Ukraine would have to give recognition to Danbas region both states and NATO may have to take stand that if it wants to make Ukraine its part, then an agreement would have to be arrived as to which weapons would be deployed in Ukraine.

Even amongst the NATO countries, presently, Germany’s approach is different, which is not something new. Actually, Germany, France and Britain, all these three countries compete with each other. In fact, in the First and Second World Wars, Germany had entered into an agreement with Russia in 1939, which is referred to as Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. Under this pact, these two countries had divided Europe between themselves. Recently, the meeting that occurred between German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Russian President Vladimir Putin, had a different outcome.

One thing which is sure is that Ukraine will have to pay a heavy price. There is hardly any doubt that NATO countries will give unlimited economic and strategic assistance to Ukraine if the war breaks out, and the foundation for the Third World War has actually been laid. However, if the war erupts, it will be on a limited scale.