सोमबार, वैशाख १०, २०८१

The Apprehension of a Nuclear War by Russia–I

Deepak Kumar 31 Oct, 2022

We can divide the Russian leadership into two parts. Those who control the reins of government have come from the political and administrative structure of the Soviet Union. That structure was built on the belief that a target should be achieved, at whatever cost, even if it means sacrificing anything. At the time of disintegration of the Soviet Union, President Vladimir Putin had retired from the post of Lieutenant Colonel in KGB, the secret service agency of the country. Russian Defence Minister, Sergei Shoigu had begun his political career in CPSU (Communist Party of Soviet Union) in 1988, whereas foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov was a diplomat in the External Affairs Ministry of the Soviet Union since 1992. Russian Prime Minister, Mikhail Mishustin, started his career in 1992. He was an police officer in the Income Tax Department, whereas his father, Vladimir Mishustin was a member of Central Committee of Komsomol Union of the Soviet communist party .

The purpose of writing this is that, presently, the government is in the hands of those who have emeged from the setup of the Soviet Union. These people are in the control of government since last 10 to 15 years. All of them are working in the same post, and the same condition is that of the military. Oleg Salyukov, who is commander of the land forces, has been occupying his post since 2014; Sergey Surovikin, who is commander of the Aero Space is holding the post since 2012; whereas, the Navy Commander Nikolai Yevmenov is in position since 2006.

The commander of the Strategic Rocket Force, Colonel General Sergei Karakayev rank officer, is working in that position since 2009. If a nuclear war breaks out, it will be under his leadership from military viewpoint. Similarly, the chief of Foreign Intelligence Army (SVR) of Russia, Sergey Naryshkin, who is in the post since 2008, began his career in 1982 and was the classmate of the incumbent president. The chief of secret service agency of the Russian Army (GRU) is Igor Kostyukov who is occupying his post since 2018. Alexander Bortnikov has been functioning as Director of FSB (secret service agency which keeps an eye on internal activities) since 2008, and he was a senior leader of KGB since 1975.

Whether it is the army or the government, its leadership is with the people from the older generation whose age is more than 65 years.

This generation is not willing to concede defeat even if means going for a nuclear war. The other generation comprises people who began their political and administrative life after 1995. They do not want war. They want to live in peace forgetful of everything, and most of them have been to western countries. They want to have economic luxuries. For this reason, most of the Russian youth want to leave the country. On declaration of the soldiers recruitment campaign (mobilisation), almost three lakh Russians fled the country. Only few youths can be seen in the cafes and metros of Moscow because Russian administration is trying to forcibly recruit them. This does not mean that the Russians are not patriotic, but they are fierce critics of government policies. They say that why should they lay down their lives for fulfilling ambitions of one individual (Vladimir Putin). They believe that Vladimir Putin is trying to establish an administrative system like that of Stalin. The laws that are being framed since last few months are reminiscent of the Stalin’s regime. The educational curriculum of children has been changed wherein human and political rights have taken a downturn. There are hardly any places which have not been bombarded by the Russia today in Ukraine . It wants to destroy all sources of energy because it supplies electricity to Poland, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, etc. The past generation of these places had supported Russia in the Warsaw Pact considering it as their leader. Vladimir Putin does not has any sense of gratitude. What will the present generation think when the innocents will not get electricity for coming months/ years together?

This is the reason why Russian soldiers have incurred about 1.5 lakh casualty. Their top eleven senior generals have died, whereas Lieutenant General Andrei Sychevoi has been captured by the Ukranian Army.

It is for this reason that Vladimir Putin is changing his military officers again and again. Only recently, General Dmitry Bulgakov has been replaced by General Mikhail Mizintsev, whereas General Valery Gerastmov has been dismissed.

The Security Council of the Russian Federation (SCRF) consists of 13 permanent members and 18 non-permanent members with President Vladimir Putin as its chairman and Dmitry Medvedev as its Deputy Chairman. The latter worked with President in St. Petersburg during 1997. Whereas Nikolai Patrvshev is Secretary of this organization and he is occupying the post since 2008. He began his career as an officer of KGB in 1975. It is this committee which will decide whether the nuclear war will take place.

Russian citizens very well know that if the nuclear war occurs, Russia too would not be spared. The spectre of destruction which is seen in Kiev, more than 100 times of that would be seen in Russia. The NATO forces are openly supplying weapons to the Ukranian Army. All the countries supporting Ukraine along with members of NATO are 40 in number. These countries, on 26 April 2022, in a meeting in Germany, had decided amongst themselves as to who would be supplying which type of weapons to Ukraine. We also need to understand which type of weapons they are supplying to Ukraine. Earlier, they used to supply only Soviet-era type of weapons. But, since the last month, they are giving weapons that have been made in the Western countries. It is this reason that the Russian Army is lagging behind now. Recently, Russia decided to impose martial law in the four provinces, which means that the figures arrived at through Referendum are wrong. Perceptibly, people of these places do not want to remain under the Russian government and so, they are not cooperating thereby leading to the need for imposition of martial law.

I would say that the leadership of the Western countries (NATO) is quite mature. This is because they have not given long range weapons to Ukraine so far and that is why Vladimir Putin and Russian citizens have been able to sleep peacefully till now. Not even a single bomb/missile has dropped in the Russian territory and so, their ‘taste’ (outcome) is not known to Vladimir Putin and Russians. On the other hand, Muslim countries are earning crores of dollars by reducing the production of crude oil and are blackmailing the common people of the world, thus.